In an effort to root out the Taliban from Waziristan the Pakistani government, with US backing, has recently undertaken a renewed effort to arm tribal militias in the area:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/19/washington/19policy.html
However, there are a number of big drawbacks. Despite the drawbacks, I think that it should be our main effort in dealing with Al-Qaeda's presence in the border area.
First, there are some parts of Waziristan where the tribal structures have already been thoroughly undermined by Al-Qaeda and the Taliban and where the strategy would be ineffective as a result. The Pakistani government had haphazardly followed a similar strategy in the past although they did not provide their tribal allies with enough support. As a result, many are distrustful of the commitment of the Pakistanis and rightfully so. Their are still elements of the Pakistani government supporting the Taliban (the ISI) despite how destructive that policy has been for Pakistan. Finally, arming tribal militias will further undermine the sovereignty of the Pakistani govenrment in the area and reduce the possibility of establishing good governance.
Despite these drawback I think they are our best hope for the border region. The historical context of Waziristan is important to consider. The people there have had a long--and successful--history of fighting outside influence. Generally, they want to be left alone to govern themselves the way they see fit. Given the hostility of the people of Waziristan, imposing security from the top down will probably not work.
The best strategy to follow is one similar to that discussed the classic Counterinsurgency theory and practice by David Galula. Basically, security should be built from the ground up. The way it is done is very important especially given the Pakistani's previous lackluster efforts. First, the areas where a tribal infrastructure remains should be the main effort. Tribal militias should be armed by unconventional units. The Pakistani conventional army needs to be in a position to provide support for them if the Taliban decide to make a large push against them. During this time, raids should be conducted in areas where the Taliban has a strong hold and where the tribal infrastructure has been diminished. Once these areas can resist Taliban influence on their own, the Army should move into remaining areas similar to how it was done at Tal Alfar in Iraq. First unsing indirect means, and then moving in preferabbly with maximum local militia participation.
It is very important that the effort not be half-hearted and that the Pakistani army is in a position to support the tribal militias. The people who volunteer to fight are assuming a huge amount of risk for themselves and the Taliban will be able to outgun them initially. Deploying it's forces in such manner will also require a greater assumption of risk by the Pakistanis which will mean political will must remain firm.
27 October, 2008
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